The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) recently released survey results that indicate nearly 58% of the 48 economists surveyed expect a recession in the US this year. Although this is a significant number, only 25% of economists believe the recession will begin before the end of March. A third of the respondents anticipate a recession to start in the April-June quarter, and one-fifth think it will commence in the July-September quarter.

These expectations appear to be in contradiction with current economic indicators. Despite the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) eight interest rate hikes, January saw more than a half-million jobs added and a 3% jump in retail sales, indicating a strong consumer financial health and willingness to spend.

Yet, government reports show that inflation shot back up in January, and economic research released Friday found that the Fed has never been able to reduce inflation without causing a recession. This could be the impetus for economists’ predictions of a recession, even though current economic signs are still relatively healthy.

The delay in economists’ expectations of when a recession will begin reflects the unexpectedly resilient economy despite the Fed’s interest rate hikes.